A commentator on my last conferencing post picked up on an important part of the distribution question that I had intentionally omitted. How does the number of conferences effect the chances of a petition eventually being granted?

I looked at 550 cases docketed on the paid docket from July 2009 – June 2010 (in other words, cases docketed 09-1 through 09-1580). My first run through was 150 cases, then another 150, and I’ve managed to finish another 250. I don’t think I’ll realistically be able to do more cases for a while so I’ve decided to publish these in a semi-complete state. The numbers are interesting and I’m reasonably satisfied with a 34% sample size from a total pool of 1,580 cases. You can click on the link below to see the charts.

The big takeaway is the impact of reconferencing on grant. As you can see from the chart below, there is a pretty strong correlation between increasing the number of conferences and likelihood of grant.

While I was at it, I wanted to take a look at the impact of amicus briefs on cert.

Then I put the two charts together!!!

The trends that I saw were definitely the ones that I expected. The likelihood of a grant increases pretty dramatically with a reconference or with an amicus brief.


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