Kedar and I have been working semi-religiously on perfecting the 2008 Election Tracker (so much so that we both conspicuously missed Saturday’s debate (OOPS!)). Anyway, our spiffy new graphs are really, really neat and can be found below.

Democratic Primary Race (click the thumbnail to enlarge via lightbox):
Democratic Primary Race Graph (Updated June 30) - By James

^^^(NOTE: I re-keyed Gore as greeen in an (unsuccessful) atttempt to amuse myself)^^^

Republican Primary Race (click the thumbnail to enlarge via lightbox):
Republican Primary Race Graph (Updated June 30) - By James

Also, I’ve added a model that tracks the presumptive party frontrunners (Giuliani (R-NY) vs. Clinton (D-NY)) in a hypothetical national election. This General Election Model can be found below (click the thumbnail to enlarge via lightbox):
Giuliani vs. Clinton Graph (Updated June 30) - By James

Those of you who are curious can find my data here: DailyWrit Poll Aggregates (.xls file).

Continuing on a previous note, Rasmussen is ridiculous. I crosschecked my Giuliani v. Clinton data with similar data at RealClearPolitics and found that, after using many of the same polls, we had substantially different averages for Mlle. Clinton (D-NY). After playing with the numbers, I found that Clinton’s RCP average on RealClearPolitics (around 48%) becomes a full point higher (and then some!) if you remove Rasmussen polls and then recalculate. Freaking ridiculous.

In less maddening news, check out the sweet new About Page and/or DailyWrit’s Full Calendar of the 2008 Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions.


Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Categories

Random Posts

  • Likelihood of a Petition Being Granted: There are a lot of numbers thrown out about the likelihood of a cert. petition being granted. The number I've always heard is 1%, but I some...
  • New OT08 Term Stats : With 43 opinions released, the Court has now released just over half of the opinions it will release for the term. Lets take a look at some ...
  • Average Age (1800-2010): I've posted a PDF of the Court's average age at the beginning of every term from 1800-present. The ages were taken on the first Monday in Oc...
  • PDF Packs for the Past Decade: I've been pillaging the Supreme Court's website in search of PDFs that I can archive for future reference. Using the Court's website and the...
  • More Sophisticated Reconferencing Statistics: A commentator on my last conferencing post picked up on an important part of the distribution question that I had intentionally omitted....