I am floored by the quality of the Election 2008 Tracker, which is not only comprehensive and fair, but also more accessible than similar trackers on other blogs. I am, however, disappointed that the aggregate numbers include Rasmussen – which often “finds” that arbitrary candidates have impossibly high support (ie: Thompson in the GOP field, early June 07). The cats at Rasmussen have also leaned decidedly right for as long as I can remember. As Jonothan Singer recently documented, they have tracked Bush’s approval rating solidly three to four points higher than national non-partisan averages.

You can find a graph of this phenomenon here.

I think another important caveat to consider in observing such national aggregates are the differences in the identities of states with early primaries. After looking at campaign spending, I think Democrats appreciate the momentum New Hampshire provides more than Republicans. I get the feeling that we might have a Democratic nominee pretty early, but that the GOP might fight it out until Super(duper) Tuesday. I hope that happens, because it will probably invite networks to pay closer attention / extend convention coverage.

Please also note that Romney’s surge has been done quietly and expertly. I smell a nominee.


2 Responses to “Election Tracker Update and Why We Dropped Rasmussen”

  1. 1 ZOMGZ ELECTION TRACKER or Hiatus Explained at DailyWrit
  2. 2 When Mitt Met Hillary at DailyWrit

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Categories

Random Posts

  • PDF Packs for the Past Decade: I've been pillaging the Supreme Court's website in search of PDFs that I can archive for future reference. Using the Court's website and the...
  • Supreme Court Releases April Hearing List: The Supreme Court today released the Hearing List for April. Gregory Garre, former Solicitor General, will argue two times in the next ...
  • Who is Roy W. McLeese?: This morning, as I was perusing next month's hearing list, I noticed a name I wasn't familiar with: Roy W. McLeese. It isn't unusual to see ...
  • Advocate Scorecard for OT00-Present: This weekend, I went through all the oral argument transcripts from OT00 through OTO8 and I counted how many times each of the major advocat...
  • Rate of 5-4 Majority Opinion Authorship: As a general matter, the Justices that tend to carry the greatest ideological authority on the Supreme Court should be the ones authoring th...