I am floored by the quality of the Election 2008 Tracker, which is not only comprehensive and fair, but also more accessible than similar trackers on other blogs. I am, however, disappointed that the aggregate numbers include Rasmussen – which often “finds” that arbitrary candidates have impossibly high support (ie: Thompson in the GOP field, early June 07). The cats at Rasmussen have also leaned decidedly right for as long as I can remember. As Jonothan Singer recently documented, they have tracked Bush’s approval rating solidly three to four points higher than national non-partisan averages.

You can find a graph of this phenomenon here.

I think another important caveat to consider in observing such national aggregates are the differences in the identities of states with early primaries. After looking at campaign spending, I think Democrats appreciate the momentum New Hampshire provides more than Republicans. I get the feeling that we might have a Democratic nominee pretty early, but that the GOP might fight it out until Super(duper) Tuesday. I hope that happens, because it will probably invite networks to pay closer attention / extend convention coverage.

Please also note that Romney’s surge has been done quietly and expertly. I smell a nominee.


2 Responses to “Election Tracker Update and Why We Dropped Rasmussen”

  1. 1 ZOMGZ ELECTION TRACKER or Hiatus Explained at DailyWrit
  2. 2 When Mitt Met Hillary at DailyWrit

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Categories

Random Posts

  • Another Elena Kagan - Miguel Estrada Connection: Justice Kagan and Miguel Estrada have had a long relationship that has confounded and surprised many of their skeptics. At Kagan's confirmat...
  • More Sophisticated Reconferencing Statistics: A commentator on my last conferencing post picked up on an important part of the distribution question that I had intentionally omitted....
  • Change is Fun But...: I'm sad to see Justice Stevens leave the Court for a variety of reasons that have been well documented by people smarter than me. I'm also e...
  • Frequency of Consecutive Opinions Release Days: I've taken a look at the number of opinion days in a given week from OT06 to OT10. In other words, I've taken a look at the number of times ...
  • Updated Term Charts: Starting this week, I'll be posting my updated charts on SCOTUSblog. You can find the first SB version of my charts here. More spec...