I am floored by the quality of the Election 2008 Tracker, which is not only comprehensive and fair, but also more accessible than similar trackers on other blogs. I am, however, disappointed that the aggregate numbers include Rasmussen – which often “finds” that arbitrary candidates have impossibly high support (ie: Thompson in the GOP field, early June 07). The cats at Rasmussen have also leaned decidedly right for as long as I can remember. As Jonothan Singer recently documented, they have tracked Bush’s approval rating solidly three to four points higher than national non-partisan averages.

You can find a graph of this phenomenon here.

I think another important caveat to consider in observing such national aggregates are the differences in the identities of states with early primaries. After looking at campaign spending, I think Democrats appreciate the momentum New Hampshire provides more than Republicans. I get the feeling that we might have a Democratic nominee pretty early, but that the GOP might fight it out until Super(duper) Tuesday. I hope that happens, because it will probably invite networks to pay closer attention / extend convention coverage.

Please also note that Romney’s surge has been done quietly and expertly. I smell a nominee.


2 Responses to “Election Tracker Update and Why We Dropped Rasmussen”

  1. 1 ZOMGZ ELECTION TRACKER or Hiatus Explained at DailyWrit
  2. 2 When Mitt Met Hillary at DailyWrit

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Categories

Random Posts

  • Four 8-1 Decisions in One Day: The Supreme Court released four opinions today, and each was 8-1. You can find all of the opinions here. CompuCredit v. Greenwood, a case...
  • Solicitor General Record During OT08: I compiled the SG's win-loss record during OT08 in four different scenarios: When it took part in a case as Petitioner, when it took part as...
  • Updated Advocate Scorecard (OT00-10): The Court's hearing list for this month completes the list of attorneys who will argue before the Supreme Court during October Term 2010. I'...
  • Advocate Watch: With the Term quickly approaching it's midway point, we can take a look at which advocates have made the biggest mark on the Term. Hearing L...
  • Advocate Scorecard: Win-Loss Record for the Top Advocates: I've compiled a really interesting list featuring the win-loss record of every advocate from the SG's office and all of the top private advo...